Deshpande's Adda!

Post May ‘14 Lok Sabha Election and its consequent results, two things were made crystal clear- firstly there was a strong pro-Modi wave and secondly an equally (or arguable stronger) anti-Congress sentiment in India. NDA winning 332 seats- of which 42 seats were won in the state of Maharashtra- considerable 13% seats of total won.  The importance of the state does not end here. Maharashtra is the richest state in India, with its GDP in 2013 almost 80% more than that of the second richest Uttar Pradesh. The state holds the financial prowess of the nation, with the BMC’s annual budget being more than many Indian states. The party which holds Maharashtra essentially controls a large amount of money pile. For the past 15 years, the state had been ruled by the Congress and NCP alliance (read Aghadi) and the two parties have an extremely strong presence both on field and in the assembly. In 2009 State Assembly elections, the BJP and Sena together were winning almost the same n...

Before Mr. Modi was announced as PM candidate, everyone (including me) has predicted a complete washout of Shiv Sena from Maharashtra. It was evident- as with time, old guns of Sena had started deserting the party. Come 2014 and even just before the elections, it was difficult to predict the impact of “Modi tsunami” on Sena candidates. Looking at specifically results from Thane, Konkan and a few other regions, I can easily say that the "Modi tsunami" was much more than even Sena/BJP could imagine. A few seats in particular: 1. In Navi Mumbai - a tradition bastion of the Naik family- where they have never lost any election: previously from Sena and now from NCP. In the LS election, Sena's Rajan Vichare won from ALL assembly segments- including those of Naik’s stronghold. 2. In Sangli - never ever has any party except Congress even come closer to victory! In 2009, Sena/BJP has supported an independent, since they had little power of contesting here. Today, the...

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Let's be realistic. Modi is no magician- who can help BJP reach 272 seats alone. There may be a positive wave in the country but looking at the local issues and regional satraps it is quite evident that Modi cannot help the BJP reach 272 figure. To approve/disprove my contemplation, I spent some time in calculating the maximum possible seats that NDA/BJP can win in 2014 looking at the current scenario. I took this: ref   as the reference. This wiki page is of EXTREME importance since it not only reveals all the details of the 2009 elections but also fragments it into individual constituencies. I am posting the results of the mini-analysis as below- please go through. State Total Current NDA BJP max in 2014 Allies in 2014 Total in 2014 Gain Possible Allies (post) Andhra Pradesh 42 0 2 3 5 5 Arunachal Pradesh 2 0 0 0 ...