Dilemma of a Maha voter - my views on Maharashtra State Elections

Post May ‘14 Lok Sabha Election and its consequent results, two things were made crystal clear- firstly there was a strong pro-Modi wave and secondly an equally (or arguable stronger) anti-Congress sentiment in India. NDA winning 332 seats- of which 42 seats were won in the state of Maharashtra- considerable 13% seats of total won.  The importance of the state does not end here. Maharashtra is the richest state in India, with its GDP in 2013 almost 80% more than that of the second richest Uttar Pradesh. The state holds the financial prowess of the nation, with the BMC’s annual budget being more than many Indian states. The party which holds Maharashtra essentially controls a large amount of money pile.

For the past 15 years, the state had been ruled by the Congress and NCP alliance (read Aghadi) and the two parties have an extremely strong presence both on field and in the assembly. In 2009 State Assembly elections, the BJP and Sena together were winning almost the same number of seats which Congress alone won. Come 2014 and the tides changed in the favour of Sena-BJP, with a host of issues including anti-incumbency, corruption charges and the national outlook going against the ruling Aghadi Sarkar. The 2014 Maharashtra State Election was a perfect timing for the Sena-BJP to wash out the Congress-NCP from, at least, the assembly. However, due to various dramatic issues the alliance failed and Sena-BJP has squandered a possible government present to them on a platter. I will not discuss why the alliance failed in detail, but I want to discuss on the theme of my article- whom should the voter vote for?

Let me be cautious when I am trying to generalise “a voter” here. “The” voter defined in my case is an average urban or semi-urban middle to high income irreligious voter who wants a change from the current system. If the Sena-BJP were together, then the choices for his vote would be much restricted to the best possible alternative. But in the current scenario, we see none of the Sena or the BJP in a position to form a government of its own. Then in such a case whom does the voter believe is in a position to form the best possible alternative- which he saw in Modi-led NDA?  Eliminating MNS from the equation- as they are not guaranteed to win even 10% of the total seats leave aside form a government on their own, we are left with only BJP and Sena.

I have highlighted a few points which go in favour of and against each of the parties.

For BJP:

1.  If the ruling party at the Centre and the State is the same, it helps implement central policies easier and without any friction. (e.g. Pune Metro Project)
   Exception- unless there is a very strong state leadership like in MP or Tamil Nadu
2.  BJP state leaders have a clean image, at the same time they have absolutely no history of being casteist or communal (the top state level leadership). Though alliance with the aggressive Maratha leader Mete has raised questions
3.  Sympathy votes for Late Munde in Marathwada, with the legacy of Munde’s development work in the area to benefit the state BJP

For Sena:

1.  Regional party which has a focus only on the state is a safe option for all local population. Unlike the BJP they do not have an “outsider” high command to follow and all decisions will be taken focusing on Maharashtra
2. Extremely strong base on the ground. In areas where the Sena is strong- it enjoys a powerful grass-root level support as well as development work.
3. Twin sympathy votes- one for Late Bal Thackeray and the other reason being Uddhav constantly rallying against BJP blaming them for the breakup. The BJP also fell into the trap by accepting the blame for breakup

Against BJP:

1. No base in large geographical areas, wherein they had to adopt candidates from other parties. A whopping 45-50 candidates had shifted loyalties at the last moment to secure a seat from the BJP
2. Blame for the split in NDA goes to them. Along with high arrogance and over-dependence on Modi wave especially when there is no single mass leader in the party who can single-handedly secure even more than 15 seats (except Gadkari) for BJP 
3. The fact that they are resolving to Modi for campaigning in the state proves the utter lack of base and leadership crisis. A separate Vidharba chant by a few leaders is causing chaos and confusion amongst the party workers and voters alike.

Against Sena:

1. Aggressive stand on Son-of-Soil and idea of (Savarkar’s) Hindutva philosophy eliminates a considerable chunk of ideological voters. This restricts proliferation of Sena
2. Uddhav, though a good administrator, is seen as a weak leader to secure votes. He will find it difficult to get votes based on his charisma- which his father and cousin Raj definitely have.
3. Sena does not have solid points to campaign and urge voters to vote for. Smaller parties like RPI sided the BJP instead of the Sena proved that Sena were the weaker of the two coalition partners. 

I would also like to add a common point applicable to both the parties, which potentially goes against them, that is the choice of candidates. A bad choice of candidate has the potential to overturn any number of reasons favouring the party. 

For e.g. Take my own local seat of Thane (City) - a traditional bastion of the Sena where the party has won all the elections it has contested right from the Municipal to Lok Sabha.

It was also rumoured that Uddhav may contest from this seat as it is one of the safest seat for Shiv Sena. However, this time around they gave the ticket to Ravi Phatak, a Congress corporator who had recently joined the party breaking (defecting) a few councillors from Congress in the Thane Municipal Corporation.
Upset Local leaders who deserved the tickets were assuaged by promises of positions or MLC tickets. Loyalist Sena voters will now think twice before voting for the Congress rebel. At the same time, BJP has given ticket to a clean and much educated advocate Sanjay Kelkar (whose office is right in front of my residence!). Strong RSS presence, a healthy business population and Modi wave favour Kelkar. The NCP has also fielded a strong candidate in incumbent MLC and son of leader Davkhare. The Congress at the same time has given its ticket to another strong local leader and corporator Narayan Pawar. The bottom line is that, if Sena has to struggle hard to retain Thane City assembly segment, then I am skeptic of how it will conquer rest of Maharashtra.

All said and done, my objective of this blog was to highlight key drivers in the upcoming election. I wanted to stress on what a traditional Sena-BJP voter is thinking on. At the same time, this blog was also intended to the non-Maharashtra voter who wanted to know a few dynamics of the state. I hope my effort has added a little to your knowledge about the subject and you have enjoyed reading it!

Do let me know of your views and suggestions.