Mathematics of 2014- statewise!

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Let's be realistic. Modi is no magician- who can help BJP reach 272 seats alone. There may be a positive wave in the country but looking at the local issues and regional satraps it is quite evident that Modi cannot help the BJP reach 272 figure. To approve/disprove my contemplation, I spent some time in calculating the maximum possible seats that NDA/BJP can win in 2014 looking at the current scenario. I took this: ref  as the reference. This wiki page is of EXTREME importance since it not only reveals all the details of the 2009 elections but also fragments it into individual constituencies.
I am posting the results of the mini-analysis as below- please go through.


State
Total
Current NDA
BJP max in 2014
Allies in 2014
Total in 2014
Gain
Possible Allies (post)
Andhra Pradesh
42
0
2
3
5
5

Arunachal Pradesh
2
0
0
0
0
0

Assam
14
5
5
1
6
1

Bihar
40
32
12
0
12
-20
20 (JDU)
Chhattisgarh
11
10
9
0
9
-1

Goa
2
1
2
0
2
1

Gujarat
26
17
20
0
20
3

Haryana
10
2
2
1
3
1

Himachal Pradesh
4
3
3
0
3
0

Jammu & Kashmir
6
0
2
0
2
2

Jharkhand
14
9
7
2
9
0

Karnataka
28
18
15
0
15
-3

Kerala
20
0
0
0
0
0

Madhya Pradesh
29
16
18
0
18
2

Maharashtra
48
21
15
13
28
7

Manipur
2
0
0
0
0
0

Meghalaya
2
0
0
1
1
1

Mizoram
1
0
0
0
0
0

Nagaland
1
1
0
1
1
0

Orissa
21
0
0
0
0
0
18 (BJD)
Punjab
13
5
3
7
10
5

Rajasthan
25
4
20
0
20
16

Sikkim
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
Tamil Nadu
39
0
2
0
2
2
18 (AIDMK)
Tripura
2
0
0
0
0
0

Uttar Pradesh
80
10
30
0
30
20
4 (RLD)
Uttarakhand
5
1
4
0
4
3

West Bengal
42
1
1
0
1
0
20 (TMC)
Andaman and Nicobar
1
1
1
0
1
0

Chandigarh
1
0
1
0
1
1

Dadra and Nagar Haveli
1
1
1
0
1
0

Daman and Diu
1
1
1
0
1
0

NCT of Delhi
7
0
4
0
4
4

Lakshadweep
1
0
0
0
0
0

Puducherry
1
0
0
0
0
0
1 (PC)

543
159
180
29
209
50
82
 Max Possible




 NDA

 NDA+ 291
  
I have been modest enough to put in the numbers- includes 2 in JnK and only 20 in Gujarat (yes- the likes of Madhav Solanki of INC are difficult to beat). The current NDA will not suffice to reach the magical figure. The non-alligned parties like the YSR and SP/BSP will never go to the BJP and hence a UPA++ can actually return to power with the 3 parties supporting! Hence BJP needs to consolidate the support of BJD, JD(U) & AIADMK at-least to grab power. The former 2 are against Modi, and will never let it happen- so how is NDA going to grab power?

To conclude, the only solution to overthrow the UPA is NDA+. But it is difficult with Modi as PM- post elections. So the only option that BJP has is Modi as Campaign Chief and XYZ as PM-elect.
I hope I am rebutted on points and not sentiments!

(XYZ can be Rajnath? Maybe? )

Comments

Kunal D said…
Dude BJD has not been against modi.
Also I believe 15-20+on NDA side.
and UPA++ won't happen relax.
June 16, 2013 at 11:20 PM
Unknown said…
Add MNS to BJP allies as well with Modi as PM
June 17, 2013 at 12:14 AM
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