Mini Analysis of Maha Results!

Before Mr. Modi was announced as PM candidate, everyone (including me) has predicted a complete washout of Shiv Sena from Maharashtra. It was evident- as with time, old guns of Sena had started deserting the party. Come 2014 and even just before the elections, it was difficult to predict the impact of “Modi tsunami” on Sena candidates. Looking at specifically results from Thane, Konkan and a few other regions, I can easily say that the "Modi tsunami" was much more than even Sena/BJP could imagine. A few seats in particular:

1. In Navi Mumbai- a tradition bastion of the Naik family- where they have never lost any election: previously from Sena and now from NCP. In the LS election, Sena's Rajan Vichare won from ALL assembly segments- including those of Naik’s stronghold.

2. In Sangli- never ever has any party except Congress even come closer to victory! In 2009, Sena/BJP has supported an independent, since they had little power of contesting here. Today, the bastion has fallen- that too with a considerable vote share.

3. In Konkan- It was always a tug fight for power between Ex Sena CM and now Cong minister Narayan Rane and ex- Sena and now NCP's Bhaskar Jadhav. Sena and BJP were almost non-existent. Sena candidate Vinayak Raut was almost an outsider- and won in a seat which now makes Narayan Rane irrelevant. Konkan seat was a miracle, no wonder Uddhav flew to Konkan instead of staying in Mumbai to celebrate.

4. Victory in Sushil Kumar Shinde's Solapur, especially when he was the Home Minister of the country comes as a surprise to me. Looking at the number of votes polled, Shinde got almost the same number of votes as he had in 2009, with BJP’s Sharad Bansode getting almost double the votes.

5. Another record breaking result was Nandurbar- where Manikrao Gavit had never lost since the seat was created, lost to a newbie albeit from the same family Dr Heena Gavit.

6. In Shirdi and Kalyan, Sena sitting MPs had deserted to contest from opposition camps- and yet lost, especially Anand Paranjapee- whose office is a few meters away from my house.

7. Talking of Mumbai as a whole, if you look at Assembly wise segments won, Priya Dutt and Sanjay Nirupam- both sitting MPs and strong leaders, lost from all the segments. From Mumbai South-Central, sitting MP Eknath Gaekwad had defeated ex CM Manohar Joshi in 2004, lost to a newcomer Rahul Shewale- who is a local Sena councillor. 

 

Despite winning 42 out of 48, there are a few shocking results for the NDA as well.

1. NDA was unable to pose a challenge to Satara’s raja and ex BJP Minister Udayanraje Bhosale, losing by over 3.5 lac votes.

2. Similar to Satara, in Madha, a bastion of Vijaysingh Mohite-Patil was retained by the NCP, though by a narrow margin.

3. Sitting Sena MP, Anand Geete narrowly edging Pawar’s right hand Sunil Tatkare in Raigad. It was anybody’s game until the last round of counting.

4. In Kolhapur, where the NDA lost, son of sitting MP and strongman Sadashiv Mandalik lost out to former Sena candidate from the same seat- Dhananjay Mahadik.

5. Supriya Sule just managing to edge past a local candidate in Baramati stronghold came in as a surprise. Going assembly segment wise, they were tied 3-3.

6. Sitting Sena Hingoli MP, Subhash Wankhede, narrowly missing out to Congress. When Subhash Mane, ex-Sena MP and ex-Congress Chief joined NCP, signs of trouble in the seat should have been noticed by the Sena/BJP. Impact of Modi wave here and in the neighbouring Nanded was limited.

7. In Nanded, former CM Ashok Chavan retained his seat- despite having corruption allegations and not so good performance as CM. Modi wave, anti-incumbency did not help NDA as he won by a comfortable margin of over 0.8 lacs.

If we look at the seats that NDA lost- in Satara, Madha and Baramati-  they had supported local parties to contest against NCP/Congress’ stalwarts. 

However in other strongholds, like Sangli, Nandurbar, BJP-Sena candidate had defeated the biggies. However, in seats like Nanded, Kolhapur and Hingoli, which should have been NDA’s due to sitting MPs contesting and Modi factor.

It is something that Sena/BJP should introspect on.

Here is an interesting pic I saw over twitter. Thanks for reading!