Mathematics of 2014- statewise!

By -


Let's be realistic. Modi is no magician- who can help BJP reach 272 seats alone. There may be a positive wave in the country but looking at the local issues and regional satraps it is quite evident that Modi cannot help the BJP reach 272 figure. To approve/disprove my contemplation, I spent some time in calculating the maximum possible seats that NDA/BJP can win in 2014 looking at the current scenario. I took this: ref  as the reference. This wiki page is of EXTREME importance since it not only reveals all the details of the 2009 elections but also fragments it into individual constituencies.
I am posting the results of the mini-analysis as below- please go through.


State
Total
Current NDA
BJP max in 2014
Allies in 2014
Total in 2014
Gain
Possible Allies (post)
Andhra Pradesh
42
0
2
3
5
5

Arunachal Pradesh
2
0
0
0
0
0

Assam
14
5
5
1
6
1

Bihar
40
32
12
0
12
-20
20 (JDU)
Chhattisgarh
11
10
9
0
9
-1

Goa
2
1
2
0
2
1

Gujarat
26
17
20
0
20
3

Haryana
10
2
2
1
3
1

Himachal Pradesh
4
3
3
0
3
0

Jammu & Kashmir
6
0
2
0
2
2

Jharkhand
14
9
7
2
9
0

Karnataka
28
18
15
0
15
-3

Kerala
20
0
0
0
0
0

Madhya Pradesh
29
16
18
0
18
2

Maharashtra
48
21
15
13
28
7

Manipur
2
0
0
0
0
0

Meghalaya
2
0
0
1
1
1

Mizoram
1
0
0
0
0
0

Nagaland
1
1
0
1
1
0

Orissa
21
0
0
0
0
0
18 (BJD)
Punjab
13
5
3
7
10
5

Rajasthan
25
4
20
0
20
16

Sikkim
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
Tamil Nadu
39
0
2
0
2
2
18 (AIDMK)
Tripura
2
0
0
0
0
0

Uttar Pradesh
80
10
30
0
30
20
4 (RLD)
Uttarakhand
5
1
4
0
4
3

West Bengal
42
1
1
0
1
0
20 (TMC)
Andaman and Nicobar
1
1
1
0
1
0

Chandigarh
1
0
1
0
1
1

Dadra and Nagar Haveli
1
1
1
0
1
0

Daman and Diu
1
1
1
0
1
0

NCT of Delhi
7
0
4
0
4
4

Lakshadweep
1
0
0
0
0
0

Puducherry
1
0
0
0
0
0
1 (PC)

543
159
180
29
209
50
82
 Max Possible




 NDA

 NDA+ 291
  
I have been modest enough to put in the numbers- includes 2 in JnK and only 20 in Gujarat (yes- the likes of Madhav Solanki of INC are difficult to beat). The current NDA will not suffice to reach the magical figure. The non-alligned parties like the YSR and SP/BSP will never go to the BJP and hence a UPA++ can actually return to power with the 3 parties supporting! Hence BJP needs to consolidate the support of BJD, JD(U) & AIADMK at-least to grab power. The former 2 are against Modi, and will never let it happen- so how is NDA going to grab power?

To conclude, the only solution to overthrow the UPA is NDA+. But it is difficult with Modi as PM- post elections. So the only option that BJP has is Modi as Campaign Chief and XYZ as PM-elect.
I hope I am rebutted on points and not sentiments!

(XYZ can be Rajnath? Maybe? )

Comments

Kunal D said…
Dude BJD has not been against modi.
Also I believe 15-20+on NDA side.
and UPA++ won't happen relax.
June 16, 2013 at 11:20 PM
Unknown said…
Add MNS to BJP allies as well with Modi as PM
June 17, 2013 at 12:14 AM
Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Welcome To Engineering....

By -
Image
SS: The following piece of writing is purely satirical and hypothetical. It does not resemble any person/object or situation in reality, any similarity to real life person/object should be taken as a pure co-incidence. Getting an over-head projector (OHP) in any normal college is one simple thing. Go and visit the staff room, and swap your ID card for the projector. Plug in the wires, adjust the focus and you are done. An excellent substitute for black-board notes, making lives of so many teachers across the globe easier. Not to forget the benefits of the same to the students who don’t have to burn their retinas in comprehending the caricatures, I mean diagrams, made by their teachers on the black-board. When it comes to an engineering college in MU, there is a twist in everything, right from the first day in the college. You are made to sign a self-imposed imposition; I mean the admission form of course, of ‘Imprisonment in the institution for 4 years or more for some special out-stan
Read more

Secularism in India

By -
(Please note this article/thesis’ sanity remains constrained only in India and applicable only to Indians.) In India, an Indian is either a Hindu, or a Muslim, or a Christian, or a Jain or a Buddhist….. or a Secularist. And India is a Secular country. My title, ain’t so thought provoking. It’s simple, you cannot be or at least not claim to be, a Hindu/Muslim (etc.) and secularist at the same time. The word secular was interpolated in our constitution by an amendment in 1976. I remember saying this to one of my secular friend who chided me for using jargons like amendment and interpolation. To answer him I have to say that these are matchless words which best describe the situation. Amendment is a change made to the constitution by a parliamentary bill/order. Interpolation is an addition/append made to the constitutional literacy. It means the word secular wasn’t mentioned in the constitution by the constitution framers, dated back to late 40’s. My point of argument is th
Read more
By -
I am not here to support his views or campaign his thoughts but I just wanted to make some misconceptions (which were especially made by Hindi and English channels) straight. 1. Raj Thackeray is against North Indians North India includes Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, West Bengal and Seven sisters other than UP-Bihar. He is against those who have immigrated from Bihar over here and are not accepting the culture but doing dadagiri and gundagardi. His MNVahatukSena has 15% people from North India….including 2 vice presidents. When asked to his one president (Mr. Sahani) he replied that MNS has done ‘no’ activities against north Indians in general and the fact that the press has hyped up the issue. 2. Raj Thackeray wants all people in Maharashtra to speak only in Marathi and speaking in Hindi according to him is not allowed He has asked all people in Maharashtra to respect the language and not in any means force the language to speak. He has no problems in speaking
Read more